Document RF nowcasting methodology (#1400 #1179)#1711
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Follow-up to #1171's high-level comparison page. This adds a standalone docs page focused on what RF actually does rather than how it compares to PolicyEngine, drawing from the LSO 2025 appendix and the Black Holes and Consolidations methodology notes: - earnings growth with explicit wage floor, spillover modelling, and the 2024-25 and provisional 2029-30 NLW age extensions (#1179), - housing costs split by tenure (PIPR for private rents, social-rent policy for social, OBR base-rate path for mortgage interest), - benefit caseload anchoring to UC statistics with discretionary CoL payments modelled as announced, - inflation index choices (EFO CPI/CPIH/RPI held flat beyond the EFO horizon), - the 4-5 fiscal-year publication horizon. Cross-links to growthfactors.md (PolicyEngine's growth rates) and nowcasting-comparison.md (the side-by-side comparison added in #1171) so the three pages function as a coherent set.
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Summary
docs/book/assumptions/rf-nowcasting-methodology.mdcovering:growthfactors.md(PolicyEngine's own growth rates) andnowcasting-comparison.md(the side-by-side comparison page from Add page to documentation on differences between our nowcasting and RF's nowcasting #1171), so the three docs function as a coherent set.Closes #1400 and #1179.
Test plan
assumptions/.🤖 Generated with Claude Code